Market Minute: July 15th, 2026 - Markets Climb the Wall of Worry
The old saying about the markets climbing a "wall of worry" is as true now as ever. Renewed military action involving Iran has been unsettling, and it comes at the same time we have a new Fed Chair and renewed concerns about inflation.
Inflation Data Provides Some Relief
Inflation concerns received a major dose of reassurance from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who said this morning, "There are encouraging reasons to expect that inflation has peaked and should edge down in the coming quarters."
Those comments were reinforced by the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which unexpectedly declined 0.3%, compared with the consensus estimate for no change. Following the news, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were all higher by approximately 0.3% as of 9:50 a.m. on July 15.
Volatility Remains a Key Theme
Looking at the broader economy, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 2 basis points this morning. However, oil remains elevated at $79.94 per barrel, up 0.8% on the day.
Our outlook remains unchanged. Inflation appears to be slowing but may continue to experience periods of volatility based on near-term economic activity. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran continues to provide a backdrop for increased volatility across stocks, bonds, and commodities.
As we move into the fall and approach the midterm elections, we also expect market volatility to increase until there is greater clarity on the composition of both houses of Congress. A Republican majority in both chambers would give the President a stronger mandate to continue pursuing his agenda. A divided Congress would likely result in legislative gridlock, while Democratic control of both houses would significantly limit the President's ability to advance his policy priorities.
Interestingly, markets have historically favored gridlock scenarios because they tend to reduce legislative uncertainty and create a more predictable environment for capital markets.
Staying Focused on the Long Term
Our focus continues to be on long-term investing and thoughtful financial planning. As always, we are here to discuss your financial plan, investment portfolio, and any tax implications that may affect your long-term goals.
Disclaimer: Investment advisory services offered through Innovative Asset Advisors Group, LLC, (“IAAG”), a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply any level of skill or training. The content provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Investments, including equities, bonds, commodities, real estate, and alternative assets, carry risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any financial decisions, you should consult with your personal financial, legal, or tax advisor to evaluate your individual circumstances. IAAG does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information presented, and it may be subject to change without notice. This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Innovative Asset Advisors Group, LLC.
