Market Minute: March 9th, 2026 - Market Volatility, Oil Prices, and the Middle East: What Investors Should Watch
During the Great Financial Crisis, my wife admonished me for checking the markets before bed because she argued there was little I could do at 10:00 PM and it was only going to cause me to lose sleep! That was the 40-year-old version. I guess the 57-year-old version has a few more miles in the rearview mirror, so yes, I was checking the markets last night (March 8th), and I slept pretty well because I believe we are experiencing volatility and certainly not the risk of permanent loss. I wanted to see if there was any news from the Middle East and also keep an eye on crude prices.
Oil Prices and Market Reversal
Oil certainly got near $120 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate and ended the day at just under $86 per barrel, which is down 5.5% from last Friday. Bond yields eased slightly, and stocks had been down during the trading day well over 2 percent—depending on your favorite index—but ended with the Dow up 0.3%, the S&P 500 up 0.6%, and the NASDAQ up 1.1%. What a difference a trading day makes!
I do not think that this current spate of volatility is over, and there will likely be more turns along the road until we reach some finality on the conflict involving Iran.
Geopolitics and Market Expectations
As an analyst, I believe Iran thought the U.S. was making pronouncements but would not take any material action. This President is different and felt responsible for thwarting Iran and its proxies.
From a market perspective, a broader peace in the Middle East could allow for significant economic prosperity that could help lift the entire region. We are a long way from that reality, but a less hostile Middle East could be a major boost to the global economy.
President Trump posted on X that “the war is very complete, pretty much.” As always, I will leave the politics to the side.
However, I also believe that the entire Middle East oil complex was not going to sit by and allow Iran to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage. The U.S. has also reportedly focused on the possibility of military escorts for oil tankers, with Iran warning that tankers needed to be very careful when transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil, Inflation, and the Fed
Most pundits are now focused on oil settling in the range of $65 to $75 per barrel. If that holds, it would suggest that oil itself will not reignite inflation.
Employment, consumer spending, and artificial intelligence are all going to be key factors for the next steps in the markets and the broader economy. We do believe that concern over oil prices and inflation will keep the Fed from continuing aggressive rate-cutting activity.
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