Market Minute: May 29th, 2026 - Watching the Consumer
Oftentimes, I reference what the “pundits” are saying about a particular market topic. I suppose anyone who puts their thoughts out there for people to consume may actually be a pundit themselves! I like to think of myself more as an analyst, trying to observe the economic machinations and determine a likely course of action.
I have always been a long-term investor because I believe one can look at market conditions and effectively build a diversified portfolio that expresses a particular view. For me, day trading or short-term trading seems a little like DraftKings! I will confess that while I was CIO of Knights of Columbus, I did make one very sizable short-term trade. It occurred a number of years ago when, just before Thanksgiving, the stock market declined for no real reason. It felt like a selloff without a clear purpose. I loaded up on some SPY, the market rallied 7–8% in short order, and I closed the position. Nice profit and then I moved on. That one seemed obvious, but I never got comfortable as a short-term trader, and this perspective has carried over into our shared investment philosophy at Innovative Asset Advisors Group.
The reason I mention this is that long-term investing requires us to pay attention to the underlying health of the economy, and right now, the consumer bears watching.
This morning, I read a report indicating that Americans are falling behind on the $1.25 trillion in credit card debt. In the first quarter, 13.12% of credit card debt was 90 days delinquent. This is the highest delinquency rate since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–2009. At that time, I remember seeing credit card delinquencies start at the subprime level and gradually move up into higher FICO score categories. They never reached the highest tiers of consumers, but the critical point is that if consumers start falling behind on credit card payments, it could lead to mortgage delinquencies and will likely impact consumer spending.
We believe that a swift resolution to the Iranian conflict that reopens the Strait of Hormuz could begin to alleviate pressure on fuel prices. Elevated grocery and commodity prices are also affecting the average consumer, and these pressures will continue to weigh on consumer debt of all types while straining consumers' ability to continue driving aggregate spending.
We always recommend rebalancing portfolios to target allocations and reassessing your asset allocation structure at appropriate intervals. With only slight corrections along the way, the U.S. stock market has been on a tear since 2023. We are always happy to meet with you to discuss your asset allocation and help ensure that your financial plan is properly reflected in your investment structure.
Disclaimer: Investment advisory services offered through Innovative Asset Advisors Group, LLC, (“IAAG”), a Registered Investment Advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply any level of skill or training. The content provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice. Investments, including equities, bonds, commodities, real estate, and alternative assets, carry risks, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any financial decisions, you should consult with your personal financial, legal, or tax advisor to evaluate your individual circumstances. IAAG does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information presented, and it may be subject to change without notice. This material, or any portion thereof, may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Innovative Asset Advisors Group, LLC.
