Market Minute: November 10, 2025 - It’s All About Jobs!
Regular readers know that I’m a bit fixated on the employment market. The reason is quite simple: consumer spending drives our economy, and if people don’t feel confident about their employment situation, their willingness to spend will decline.
Part of this focus on aggregate spending stems from my belief in behavioral finance — the study of how psychological factors influence financial decision-making. Behavioral finance blends psychology and economics to explain why people make certain financial decisions that could defy logic or statistical reasoning. For example, after a prolonged bull market, someone might see their 401(k) balance rise and feel wealthier than they actually are, prompting them to make a large purchase like a new home or car. The reverse is also true — and that’s the point of today’s discussion.
Layoffs Surge in October
On November 6, 2025, the U.S. jobs report revealed a dramatic surge in layoffs, with over 153,000 job cuts announced in October. The spike in layoffs was driven largely by the tech and warehousing sectors, reflecting widespread cost-cutting and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence. October’s total of 153,074 layoffs was nearly triple the number reported in October 2024. The technology sector alone saw 33,281 cuts, almost six times higher than in September. Significant reductions also occurred in the retail and services industries.
The key drivers behind these layoffs included:
AI adoption, which is reshaping industries and displacing roles.
Cost-cutting pressures resulting from softening consumer and corporate spending.
Reevaluation of post-pandemic hiring booms.
This year, through October 2025, nearly 1.1 million job reductions have been announced — the highest number since the pandemic.
The Behavioral Finance Connection
Continuing with the behavioral finance theme, it’s important to consider how employment uncertainty may influence consumer spending. When people become concerned about job security, even if their own position is relatively stable, they often reduce discretionary spending and increase savings.
This cautious mindset can spread as individuals observe friends, family, or colleagues facing layoffs, amplifying the broader economic impact.
Quality of Jobs: Another Concern
I am also considering the ramifications from an article I saw on CNBC's website that discussed a Gallup Poll revealing that 60% of U.S. workers do not have a “quality job” that provides basic financial well-being, safety, and other fundamental factors. The survey, which included over 18,000 workers across various industries, defined a quality job as one that meets minimum thresholds across three out of five dimensions:
Financial well-being, such as fair pay that meets basic needs and reduces financial stress.
Workplace culture and safety, as in a safe and respectful environment free of harassment.
Growth and development opportunities, where workers have a clear path to build skills and gain experience to advance in their careers.
Agency and voice, where workers have decision-making power in their working conditions, like pay and use of technology.
Work structure and autonomy, where workers have a stable, predictable schedule and control over how work is performed.
This finding raises an important question: if layoffs are rising and 60% of employed individuals view their jobs as low quality, could consumer spending be negatively affected? Given that 70% of our economy is driven by consumer spending, the message remains clear: it’s all about jobs.
